How Facebook Can Become Bigger In Five Years Than Google Is Today

Remember three�years ago, when Microsoft paid a quarter-billion�dollars for 1.6% of Facebook and the exclusive right to run banner�ads across Facebook.com? Tell the truth, how many of you thought that�was a killer business decision? I can't say I did at the time. But as�that deal is about to expire in�2011, Facebook's status as a revenue�juggernaut is rarely�questioned any more.

In fact, I have been mulling over data from both companies, and I'm�ready to declare in public my belief that Facebook will be�bigger in five years than Google is right now, barring some drastic�action or accident. Futhermore, Facebook will grow without needing to�cut into Google's core business of text ads, which are still 99%�of Google's profits. Even if every single Facebook user performs�just as many searches with Google as ever?including Google Instant,�mobile search, and YouTube?Facebook will inexorably grow as big as Google is today and maybe bigger, because Madison Avenue's brands are less interested in�targeting than they are in broadcasting to vast mother-loving buckets�of demographically correct eyeballs, and Facebook has become the�perfect platform for that.

What do I mean by bigger? Facebook already has more�page views than Google. People already�spend more�time spent on Facebook than Google. I'm referring to�the life blood of any business: revenues.

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