Saturday, October 16, 2010

Microsoft's iPhone, BlackBerry Funeral a Bit Premature

File this under Just Plain Weird: Last week, Microsoft hosted a mock funeral for rivals of its upcoming Windows Phone 7. You can see the photos and video clips circulating online, which show a bunch of Microsoft employees escorting a plus-size iPhone mockup and a BlackBerry to the "grave." They even hired a hearse or two. Did Halloween come early this year?(You can find some photos of the event here, on a Flickr account belonging to one Trioculus, who lists himself as a "software tester" and is, I assume, a Microsoft employee. I especially like his shots of Darth Vader on a motorcycle:)The entertainment value of seeing Microsoft employees marching around in bad zombie makeup notwithstanding, some online pundits (like David Neal over at the Inquirer) have called the event's taste in question. I certainly think the whole thing is a little premature, to say the least--both the BlackBerry and iPhone may find their respective market share under serious assault by Google Android, but it's not like either smartphone platform is destined for the dustbin of history anytime soon.That being said, research firm IDC expects Microsoft's smartphone franchise to make modest but noticeable gains in coming years, rising from 6.8 percent to 9.8 percent of the market by 2014. During that same period, according to their recent research report, Apple's iOS will fall from 14.7 percent market share to 10.9 percent, while BlackBerry OS will dip slightly from 17.9 percent to 17.3 percent.But Android could prove the big winner during that period, rising from 16.3 percent to 24.6 percent. "Android is the wild card, deserving close observation for the rest of this year and the years to come," Ramon Llamas, an IDC analyst, wrote in a Sept. 7 statement tied to the report. "Phone vendors have been drawn to Android because it allows them to present their own approach to what a smartphone experience can be. In addition, users have quickly warmed to Android, comparing it to iOS due to its ease of use and a growing mobile application storefront."Which is why it's odd that Microsoft's fake funeral didn't feature a mock Droid 2 or Evo 4G: Android represents arguably the biggest threat to Windows Phone 7. Both smartphone platforms work according to similar models, trusting manufacturers to create the devices; Microsoft executives have even taken swipes at Android on this front, hinting that Phone 7 won't have the market-fragmentation issues currently beginning to bedevil Google's offering.But ever since Windows Phone 7's February unveiling in Barcelona, Microsoft executives have made it clear they intend to charge manufacturers for smartphone OS licenses. That could tilt manufacturers more heavily into the Android camp, even though Microsoft also argues that loading Android onto devices comes with "hidden expenses." The fact that Android is rapidly improving, and its Marketplace is growing, presents an added competitive challenge.I can understand how hosting an event like this might be good for employee morale, but I don't think anyone's kidding themselves about the challenges Microsoft faces in trying to get Windows Phone 7 successfully launched. After all, that's why the company could spend as much as $400 million on the marketing campaign.



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