Research firm NPD Group just released some smartphone market-share numbers for the fourth quarter of 2010, and at first glance their data's enough to send even the most stalwart Microsoft executive screaming for the hills: Windows Phone 7's share hits 2 percent, dead-even with Palm's WebOS but lagging Windows Mobile (4 percent), Research In Motion's BlackBerry franchise (19 percent), Apple's iOS (19 percent) and current market-leader Android (53 percent).
Some blogs are already making hay out of Windows Phone 7 lagging behind Windows Mobile, its older and increasingly antiquated predecessor. Certainly it makes for a good instant headline, the tech-world equivalent of "Octogenarian Beats Down UFC Champion." But it's also not the whole story.
Windows Phone 7 devices made their U.S. debut Nov. 8, once the quarter was already underway, and continues to be unavailable on Verizon and Sprint. That would hobble any new platform's market-share, even without Apple's iOS and Google Android sucking all the oxygen out of the proverbial room. Plus, despite its creaky nature, Windows Mobile remains a legacy player among a not-insubstantial subset of businesses--a presence that, like Windows Vista, could take some time to fully dwindle to nothing.
If anything, the NPD Group data simply confirms the obvious: Windows Phone 7 is not a breakout hit. For months ahead of the platform's release, Microsoft executives had been prepping for that eventuality, telling anyone who would listen that Windows Phone 7 was a long-term project unlikely to beat Android or iOS anytime soon.
Nonetheless, the data reinforces the long road ahead for Microsoft's new smartphones.
"Microsoft has made the case for Windows Phone 7's differentiation and improved integration," Ross Rubin, executive director of industry analysis for the NPD Group, wrote in a Jan. 31 statement. "Now, the company must close the feature gap, offer more exclusive capabilities, work with partners to deliver hardware with better differentiation, and leverage its extensive experience in driving developer communities to increase its app offerings."
On Jan. 26, Microsoft confirmed that some 2 million Windows Phone 7 devices had been sold by manufacturers to retailers, but offered no guidance on how many of those ended up in consumers' hands. In lieu of that hard data, company executives have pointed to research data suggesting that some 93 percent of Windows Phone owners are either "satisfied" or "very satisfied" with the devices.
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