But Microsoft's also hoping that its huge marketing push behind the Xbox Kinect, which uses a 3D camera to mirror game players' movements onto an onscreen avatar, will result in a ton of sales. The hands-free controller has been front-and-center at the company's events for months, talked up endlessly by executives and offered (in demo form) to a wide variety of bloggers, journalists and analysts. Television ads highlight Microsoft's Kinect partnership with Burger King and other brands.
So far, the strategy seems to be working. "This item is in high demand and supplies from the manufacturer are limited," warns Amazon.com, on the eve of Kinect's Nov. 4 launch. You didn't exactly see those types of notices with the Kin phones, Microsoft's last big consumer initiative (and most recent catastrophic failure).
Indeed, "Microsoft expects Kinect to become a growth driver upon its release later this year," suggested an Oct. 28 research note from Technology Business Research. In addition, the ideas underlying the $150 device's 3D camera will likely find their way into other, non-gaming products from Microsoft; an assumption reinforced by the company's recent acquisition of Canesta, which holds patents for 3D technology.
"There are high stakes for them to get this right," Sandeep Aggarwal, an analyst at Caris & Co., told The Wall Street Journal Nov. 3.
Microsoft's evidently hoping that the broad swath of casual gamers who made Nintendo's Wii a multiyear bestseller will gravitate toward the Kinect's user-friendly interface and colorful, easy-to-play games. However, the device may prove a more difficult sell for hardcore gamers, who never gravitated toward the Wii to the same degree as the PS3 or Xbox 360.
In any case, Microsoft's likely also hoping the Kinect will add to the Xbox 360's lifespan. It's been more than five years since the console's first unveiling, which in tech terms is an eternity, but at least one Microsoft executive is quoted as saying this generation could last another five years.
I've tried Kinect on a number of occasions. It's fun, but considering my personal gaming tastes run more toward Civilization V than fitness-and-fighting titles, I'm also not the target audience. In the meantime, it'll be interesting to see if Microsoft's attempt at a great (gaming) leap forward will sustain beyond the holiday season - and those millions in marketing dollars.
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