jennell2jenson: Windows Phone 7 Updates Could Open Door to Fragmentation

Friday, November 19, 2010

Windows Phone 7 Updates Could Open Door to Fragmentation

Google's Android ecosystem will become too fragmented, Microsoft executives have insisted for months. Microsoft would avoid that same fate with Windows Phone 7, they argued, by dictating minimum hardware requirements to their manufacturing partners--and by taking control of software-update delivery.

"Microsoft will push Windows Phone 7 software updates to end users and all Windows Phone 7 devices will be eligible for updates." That's Microsoft's line to a number of media outlets.

But there seems a minor debate on the blogosphere today over whether Microsoft will truly maintain a rigid degree of control over software updates. Ars Technica quotes Paul Thurrott quoting Joe Belfiore, corporate vice president and director of Windows Phone Program Management, as saying the carriers will have some degree of influence on the process:

"We build updates for all Windows Phone users, but must certify them with the carriers ... they'll happen on a regular cadence like they do on a PC. If a carrier wants to stop an update they can. But they will get it out on the next release."

That also means a carrier could, at least in theory, disrupt Microsoft's updating plan.

"Carriers could in fact block updates to sell you a phone," Belfiore apparently added in his conversation with Thurrott. "That can happen. But we don't expect that to happen ... Microsoft is being very trusting of the carriers here."

Belfiore's next comment suggests he's aware of how Microsoft's previous mobile operating system, Windows Mobile, ran headlong onto the Rocky Shoals of Fragmentation: "This is very different from the situation with Windows Mobile where every phone was very different. With Windows Phone, there is no impact on OEM code, network code, and so on."

However, he did seem to dodge Thurrott's question about whether the carriers, Microsoft, or end-users had ultimate control over Windows Phone 7's updating and software: "In theory, the user. Carriers get that the end users want this value."

As a number of bloggers have already pointed out, Belfiore comes off here as an optimist. Relationships between carriers, manufacturers, and companies such as Apple have not, historically, been the most copacetic. And if carriers have the opportunity to block an update, they could potentially use that as leverage against not only Microsoft, but also end-users themselves ("Oops, we're not offering the latest software for last year's devices. So sorry.")

Giving carriers control over updates also opens the door to the fragmentation of the Windows Phone 7 platform. If one carrier signs off on every major update for its smartphones, while others lag behind, you could start seeing different builds of Phone 7 with different features. Then Microsoft faces a tipping point akin to the one that sent Windows Mobile flying off the rails.